Two weeks out, projection models show Donald Trump’s numbers slipping against Hillary Clinton

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We’re down to a fortnight in this year’s presidential campaign, and there was a detectable swing in the numbers for eight projection models we’re tracking on the political website 270towin.com, plus RealClearPolitics.

The odds appear to be in Democrat Hillary Clinton’s favor over Republican Donald Trump. The models give her a range from 262 electoral votes to 352 (last week 256 to 341). Trump’s scores on the models fall some, especially at the lower end, with a range from 126 to 191 (last week 170 to 197). The magic number to win is 270.

Georgia continues to make appearances on some of the models as “likely” or “leaning” for Trump, but it even shows up as a tossup state, along with Texas, on RealClearPolitics this week. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s poll, conducted last week, showed similar findings, with Trump holding a 2-point edge over Clinton, well within the margin of error of 4.26 percent.

RealClearPolitics, by far, sees the largest number of electoral votes as still up for grabs, nearly twice as many as the next highest site. The range of tossup states bottoms out at 13, so once again, some sites see opportunity while others are more guarded.

Once again, let’s stress that these are projections and have “margin of error” written all over them. Some of them lean heavily on polling, which represents only a snapshot of the race in its current state. But others consider additional information, such as the state of the economy and past voting histories. But some of these models have been quite accurate in the past.

These models also operate on different schedules. Some say they revise their totals as often as three times a day – others, not so much. That means some may still be catching up on significant campaign developments, which helps explain the wide variation in projected totals.

Here are some of the basics:

The models all rate states as “safe” for one candidate or the other, “likely” or “leaning,” or “undecided,” and they assess how many electoral votes each candidate has. 270towin offers explanations for how models arrive at their conclusions.

We concentrate on the “likely,” “leaning” and “undecided” states to help explain where candidates are choosing to campaign.

One other wrinkle: Electoral votes can be divided among candidates in Maine and Nebraska.

An updated version can be found here each Tuesday until Election Day, Nov. 8.

Here’s a look at the most recent projections from each model:

COOK POLITICAL REPORT FORECAST (as of Oct. 20)

Overall – Clinton 278 electoral votes to 179 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 272 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Up for grabs – 81 electoral votes (69 last week)

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 59 electoral votes (no change from last week)

Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 22 electoral votes (34 last week)

Georgia (16) and Utah (6)

Last week – Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Maine (1)

THE CRYSTAL BALL 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Oct. 20)

The Crystal Ball is produced by Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Overall – Clinton 352 electoral votes to 173 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 341 electoral votes to 197 for Trump

Up for grabs – 13 (zero last week)

Iowa (6), Utah (6) and Maine (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 94 electoral votes (86 last week)

Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Maine (3), Nebraska (1)

Likely voting for Trump – 16 (40 last week)

Georgia (16)

Last week – Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Utah (6) Maine (1)

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT POLLS-PLUS FORECAST (updated hourly)

FiveThirtyEight combines polling data with information about the economy and voting histories. It defines a state as a tossup if no candidate has a better than 60 percent chance of winning the state.

Overall – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 179 for Trump

No change from last week

Up for grabs – 37 electoral votes (no change from last week)

Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Likely voting for Clinton – 50 electoral votes (no change from last week)

Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Nevada (6)

Likely voting for Trump – 19 electoral votes (3 last week)

Georgia (16) and Alaska (3)

Last week – Alaska (3)

THE FIX ELECTORAL COLLEGE RATINGS (as of Oct. 17)

The Fix is produced by the political team at The Washington Post.

Overall – Clinton 317 electoral votes to 186 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 273 electoral votes to 186 for Trump

Up for grabs – 35 electoral votes (79 last week)

Ohio (18), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 121 electoral votes (77 last week)

Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 52 electoral votes (39 last week)

Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Iowa (6), Utah (6) and Alaska (3)

Last week – Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Iowa (6) and Utah (6)

PREDICTWISE PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)

Overall – Clinton 340 electoral votes to 179 for Trump

No change from last week

Up for grabs – 19 electoral votes (no change from last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Arizona (11), Iowa (6), Maine (1) and Nebraska (1)

Leaning for Clinton – 33 electoral votes (no change from last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15)

Leaning for Trump – 16 electoral votes (19 last week)

Georgia (16)

Last week – Georgia (16) and Alaska (3)

REALCLEARPOLITICS

Overall – Clinton 262 electoral votes to 126 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 256 electoral votes to 170 for Trump

Up for grabs – 150 electoral votes (112 last week)

Texas (38), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and Maine (1)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Indiana (11), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (2)

Leaning for Clinton – 77 electoral votes (101 last week)

Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4) and Maine (2)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7) and New Mexico (5)

Leaning for Trump – 36 electoral votes (80 last week)

Indiana (11), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9) and Utah (6)

Last week – Texas (38), Georgia (16), Missouri (10), South Carolina (9), Utah (6) and Maine (1)

ROTHENBERG & GONZALES RATINGS  (as of Oct. 21)

Overall – Clinton 323 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 279 electoral votes to 191 for Trump

Up for grabs – 24 electoral votes (68 last week)

Ohio (18) and Iowa (6)

Last week – Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6)

Likely voting for Clinton – 84 electoral votes (40 last week)

Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Last week – Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)

Likely voting for Trump – 44 electoral votes (27 last week)

Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Indiana (11) and Utah (6)

Last week – Georgia (16) and Arizona (11)

UPSHOT PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST (updates three times a day)

The Upshot is produced by The New York Times, using polls, past election results and national polling.

Overall – Clinton 323 electoral votes to 179 for Trump

Last week – Clinton 322 electoral votes to 192 for Trump

Up for grabs – 36 electoral votes (24 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate has a 60 percent or higher chance of winning the state.

Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Iowa (6) and Maine (1)

Last week – Ohio (18) and Iowa (6)

Leaning for Clinton – 22 electoral votes (50 last week)

Defined as meaning no candidate more than a 79.9 percent chance of winning the state.

North Carolina (15), Nevada (6) and Nebraska (1)

Last week – Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Nevada (6)

Leaning for Trump – 16 electoral votes (18 last week)

Georgia (16)

Last week – Georgia (16), Maine (1) and Nebraska 91)

 

Reader Comments 0

2 comments
weetamoe
weetamoe

You have failed to do your jobs as journalists.  You have ignored some of the most significant issues and have not provided the most basic information your readers need to know.  

Mark
Mark

 Why do you spend a lot of time preparing a color coded map and then don't include a legend informing what the colors mean?  I was able to figure it out, but why make your readers, (customers), work to understand an otherwise excellent article?